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Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
1
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.6%
avg ELO +5.1 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1212
· median 1212
· range 1212–1212
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1181
Q3 1383
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.0% | +10.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
